Defence official Richard Perle and Bush speechwriter David Frum, who coined the phrase 'axis of evil'. Both are leading neo-conservatives, part of the influential network behind the push to invade Iraq. The book lays out a blueprint for how a second Bush administration should see the world. 'There is no middle way for Americans: It is victory or holocaust,' Perle wrote. Arguing for aggressive confrontation with Saudi Arabia, North Korea and Syria, it depicts the West versus Islam as the defining conflict of the twenty-first century. Some observers warn of the extreme consequences of a second Bush win. Republican gerrymandering of electoral distracts has created a Congress where a Republican majority is virtually assured as most seats become permanently 'safe'. Experts now believe there are only 25 contestable House seats left. At the same time, a Bush win would mean that by 2008 a Republican President would have controlled the appointment of senior judges for 20 of the past 28 years. By the end of a second term, Bush would be likely to have named three more Supreme Court judges, locking up the court for cultural and political conservatives for a generation. 'There is something dangerous at work here. The Republicans, if they win again, are in a position to change the structure of American democracy,' said Robert Kuttner, editor of US Prospect magazine.

The race is still running though. Pollsters talk about a '50-50' America where support for the two major parties has not shifted significantly since the nail-biting finish of 2000. For Democrats last week a glimpse of possible victory this November came from an unlikely place: Kentucky. Though it is in the South, a by-election for a congressional seat was resoundingly won by Democrat Ben Chandler. The victory was the party's first by-election capture of a Republican-held seat in 13 years. More importantly, Chandler's opponent, Alice Kerr, had run a campaign stressing her close links with Bush. In response the Democrats urged voters to 'send George Bush a message' by voting for Chandler. The result was a crunching 55-43 per cent victory. Now Democrats are in a position unthinkable a year ago. Bush's approval ratings have plummeted to record lows and he has taken major hits on the economy and the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Both viable Democrat candidates, Kerry and John Edwards, have recently come ahead of Bush in polls. Money is flowing into Democrat coffers and, far from being torn apart in the bitter contest to find a nominee, the party has dominated the headlines with its united attacks on Bush's record. Edwards could still be Bush's opponent following his close second place last week in Wisconsin where Kerry had been expected to notch up a convincing majority. But most still expect Kerry versus Bush in November. Edwards may be showcasing his talents as Kerry's running mate - pairing up a north-eastern liberal with a southern Clintonesque charmer. The Republican machine of Bush's policy guru, Karl Rove, is ready to take them on. The dirty tricks so far are a taste of things to come. In this most bitter of elections there is only thing both sides agree on: it will be a nail biting contest. 'I feel good but it is going to be close,' said senior Republican strategist Charlie Black. 'And when something is close, it's also loseable.'